Indrek Kannik, director of the International Centre for Defence and Security says Trump’s White House could help Ukraine more than Biden’s second term.
How would Donald Trump’s victory impact the security of Estonia and Europe?
People who claim today they know what the impact would be are ruthlessly bluffing. One of Donald Trump’s special treats is that he is very unpredictable. One potentially negative impact is that it would bring even more confusion and confrontation in U.S. society than at present. Secondly, Trump’s win could have an irritating effect on our Western Europe allies and transatlantic cooperation may become worse.
Some security analysts also point to possibly positive outcomes. Do you see any?
Trump’s win could accelerate faster Europe to invest into its defence. The current administration’s actions – especially in the second year of the war – have been reactive in a bad sense, and they have always been far off the pace. This raises the question about who would be worse in office. I don’t see any reason to think that Biden in his second term would be more determined, energetic and capable to act more forcefully.
So, in essence having Trump in the White House could turn out to have a positive impact on European security?
It is not excluded, but the risks and unpredictability are high. Remember that when Trump was in office, the US presence in central and eastern Europe grew. Also, Barack Obama never agreed to deliver larger armaments to Ukraine, but this [process] started during Trump’s time and continued with Biden. These weapons were of tremendous help to Ukraine at the beginning of the war. Without it perhaps Ukraine wouldn’t have been able to survive. The best we can get from the current administration is the continuation of the static situation in Ukraine as it is now. With their unwillingness and fears of escalation they do not want to see Ukraine win the war.